Columbus Industrial Real Estate: Market Report

Columbus is the Midwest market the big institutional money decided to love. Intel’s chip campus, Rickenbacker’s air-cargo hub, and one of the fastest-growing populations in the region pulled cap rates down and pushed pricing up. We like the market too. Just not the part everyone is bidding. The mispricing here isn’t in the trophy big-box anymore — it’s in the functional small-bay and IOS under $10 million that the Intel-story money drives right past.

The numbers

Columbus holds roughly 391 million square feet of industrial inventory across about 6,075 buildings (CoStar, Q1 2026). Vacancy sits near 6.5%, with availability around 7.8% — that’s high, and here’s the reason: a lot of speculative space got built into the growth story. Average asking rents run about $8.41 per square foot, with triple-net rents near $6.99 (CoStar, Q1 2026).

The demand is real. Rent grew about 5.7% over the trailing 12 months — among the strongest in the markets we track (CoStar, Q1 2026). Net absorption was roughly 10.9 million square feet over the same period, against 4.7 million square feet of net deliveries. What you’re seeing is tenants taking space faster than it gets built.

The supply pipeline is the offset. About 13.3 million square feet are under construction, with roughly 10.1 million square feet of starts over the trailing year (CoStar, Q1 2026) — almost all large speculative big-box. That’s what keeps the headline vacancy high even while absorption runs hot.

Pricing follows the demand. Columbus clears at roughly a 7.1% market cap rate, with industrial trading near $98 per square foot (CoStar, Q1 2026) — tighter and more expensive than most of the Midwest. That’s the institutional bid for the growth story, and it’s exactly why we’re picky about where we buy.

Why the basis matters

When sale prices sit near $98 per square foot, the margin of safety is thinner than in our cheaper-basis markets. So we get more disciplined, not less. The question on every Columbus deal is simple: are we buying functional product below the cost to build it, or are we paying a growth premium for someone else’s story?

That premium is real in the large speculative big-box, where institutional buyers fight over the Intel-and-logistics thesis and cap rates compress. We don’t play there. We focus on the segment where the bid is thin — smaller-bay and IOS where in-place rents still sit below replacement economics, and where 5.7% rent growth works in our favor instead of someone else’s underwriting.

This is a below-replacement-basis thesis with a demand kicker, not a momentum bet. We’re not underwriting to cap-rate compression. We’re underwriting to a basis that holds even if the speculative wave keeps vacancy high for another year.

The bifurcation

Columbus is two markets wearing one vacancy number.

• Big-box (200,000+ SF): Speculative supply built ahead of the Intel and logistics story. This is what drove the 13.3 million square feet under construction and what props up the headline vacancy. It’s also the most fought-over, most institutionally priced segment in the metro — and not what we buy.
• Small-bay, flex, and IOS (15,000–80,000 SF): The buildings local manufacturers, distributors, trades, and industrial-service-yard users actually occupy. New construction rarely pencils at this size, so the segment stays short on product and a lot tighter than the metro headline.

Here’s where the mispricing comes from: one number describing two different assets. Money chasing the growth story crowds into the big-box and skips the small-bay underneath it.

Submarkets we watch

• Rickenbacker — the air-cargo and intermodal core in the southeast, anchored by the international airport and a deep distribution base.
• West / I-70 — the established logistics corridor with strong interstate access and broad tenancy.
• Southeast — functional, affordable product serving regional distribution and the Rickenbacker spillover.
• New Albany — the northeast growth node, home to the Intel campus in development and a magnet for advanced-manufacturing and data-center demand.

Demand drivers

Columbus sits in the middle of the eastern logistics map, within a one-day drive of roughly half the U.S. population, and Rickenbacker gives it dedicated air-cargo capacity most Midwest metros don’t have. The tenant base is broad: Amazon for e-commerce distribution, Honda for advanced manufacturing, and Intel’s chip campus in development as a long-horizon demand anchor that pulls suppliers and contractors into the metro.

A metro of roughly 2.26 million people with about 135,000 industrial jobs and median household income near $86,000 supports a deep, sticky base of occupiers (CoStar, Q1 2026). Intel is the headline. But the durable small-bay demand comes from the mix around it — distribution, regional manufacturing, and the trades that serve a growing population.

How Bluebird approaches the market

We underwrite Columbus on in-place versus market rent, lease structure and rollover, submarket-level vacancy instead of the metro headline, and a conservative capital stack. In a market this popular, basis discipline is the whole game. We let the institutional bid have the trophy big-box and concentrate on functional small-bay and IOS where the entry price still makes sense. The income comes from leasing, mark-to-market on renewal, and operations — not financial engineering.

For the broader thesis, see our Columbus market page, the full Midwest industrial market guide, and our other market reports.

The opportunity in Columbus isn’t the Intel-driven big-box everyone is already bidding. It’s the supply-short small-bay underneath the growth story, bought below replacement cost and operated well. Low basis, tight supply, rents with room to run. Bluebird works with accredited investors — request access to learn more.

Market statistics above are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable and are provided for informational purposes only. They are not a guarantee of future results, and any targeted outcomes are subject to risk, including loss of capital.